(trendingpolitics) – One warning many security analysts have echoed about the Russian invasion of the Ukraine is that it might embolden China to invade Taiwan and crush the Republic of China once and for all, something that has long been a goal of the Red Chinese state.
Fox News, for example, published an op-ed articulating those concerns. The author, Kevin Roberts, said:
China is in this fight. The United States still isn’t. And President Biden’s waffling weakness on Ukraine is only further emboldening them. Consider how China has undercut the economic sanctions against the Russian economy through new oil and gas deals. It is past time for the United States to take CCP at its word and treat it like the dangerous strategic rival it is.
Similarly, Fox News senior strategic analyst Gen. Jack Keane (Ret.) said that the economic pain being inflicted on Russia by Western sanctions and military pain being inflicted by high-tech Western weapons won’t be enough to deter Red China from invading Taiwan. In his words:
this is a fact: President Xi is determined as ever to bring Taiwan into his orbit. And I don’t believe for a minute that the adverse impacts of what’s taking place to Russia, that they’re heading toward a strategic failure as a result of this invasion, necessarily correlates to him and put curbs on what his strategic objectives are. He is focused on his strategic objectives for his national interest. And what’s happening to the Russians, in my judgment, will not deter him.
Well, those worries about a Red Chinese invasion of the Republic of China might be more than neo-con hand-wringing.
According to a FSB (Russian intelligence) document that was leaked and reported on by Newsweek, the Chinese were planning on an invasion of Taiwan this autumn.
Newsweek, reporting on that supposed document, one that it notes is unverified, claims it said at one point that:
“Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms.”
So, based on the unverified FSB document, Xi was considering doing what Putin did: taking advantage of American weakness to achieve a major foreign policy objective.
ZeroHedge, casting doubt on the document’s credibility, reports that:
The fact that the document emerged from within what can be described as Russian opposition activist groups is alone enough to case severe doubt on its authenticity. Taiwan’s foreign minister also appeared to downplay the document when asked about its authenticity in a press briefing this week.
Still, if true, it looks like a major war and geopolitical disaster might have been inadvertently avoided by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Still, Keane could be right and the Chinese could have not had their minds changed by the invasion, or they could drawn a far different conclusion from what has happened so far and see the US decision to not intervene directly (a smart decision), as a sign that the US wouldn’t intervene for Taiwan.
Right now, we don’t know. But the US must remain vigilant and do what it can to defend the embattled island nation of Taiwan.