A devastating report on the country’s economic progress may imperil President Joe Biden’s chances at reelection, just as the White House was hoping that the latest figures would prove that a rebound was imminent.
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the U.S. added 175,000 non-farm jobs last month, not enough to stop the unemployment rate from ticking up to 3.9%, according to the Daily Caller. The number was far short of the 243,000 expected by economists who predicted the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.8%. April’s figures represent a precipitous drop-off from the month before when U.S. employers hired an additional 303,000 workers.
Persistent inflation is compounding a stagnant economy which grew at just 1.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024. Rates remains at 3.5% year-over-year in March, up from 3.2% in February and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni noted that unemployment claims remain largely unchanged, a result that fails to mirror the increasing number of American workers.
On Wednesday Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rates will remain unchanged as the country’s central bank waits for more signs that the economy is cooling. Rates remain between 5.25% and 5.50%, the highest in 23 years. The hikes, however, have not tempered hiring as expected, affirming the stability of U.S. businesses to the chagrin of the Biden administration. Productivity among workers, meanwhile, is waning. U.S. business productivity growth slowed by 0.3% in the first quarter and growth in manufacturing productivity increased by just 0.2%, indicating that increased productivity cannot be counted on in estimates of future economic activity.
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Record levels of government spending during the pandemic remain a prime cause of the malaise gripping Americans’ bank accounts and savings funds. President Biden’s 2021 Inflation Reduction Act included nearly $900 billion in new spending over 10 years, and he continues to trail former President Donald Trump in polls when voters are asked who would be a better steward of the economy. The issue remains front and center, for outpolling matters like immigration, foreign affairs, and abortion where Biden could make up ground.
Recent polls, released by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, show Trump with a clear 6-point lead over the incumbent in six of seven battleground states that will determine the 2024 election. Those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona — were either lost or only narrowly won by Trump in 2020. The only lead still held by President Biden is in Michigan, where he is ahead by just 2 points.
Even if President Biden were to focus on his advantage on abortion in swing states, there’s weak evidence to suggest that it could tip the outcome. In Arizona, where a state court recently upheld an 1864 law allowing women who receive an abortion to be jailed, just 24% of respondents in a recent poll held Trump responsible for the end of Roe despite his nominating three Supreme Court Justices that voted to overturn it.